A Look At Player Options: When To Opt Out or Opt In As An Agent

by Ngozika Nwaneri

Deciding whether or not to exercise a player early termination option, also known as a player option (PO), is one of the top landscape-changing moves an agent can make in Mock GM®. Whichever side the player ends up on sets the stage for a hectic free agency period following a leagues' college draft.

Unlike previous years, GMs and Agents are going to have to think a little more about early termination clauses because of the expected spike in the 2016-17 NBA Salary Cap. With almost $20 million more dollars to spend on players, agents will want as many of their clients in the market next year as oppose to this year if it makes the most sense.

First thing I did was look as Horfords's 2015-16 cap number. At round $19.5 million, his number is pretty high which is great as his agent. Could I get Al that $19.5 million back if I convinced him to become a free agent this offseason? I believe I could, but it's risky. Al's cap number in this particular league is over the maximum allowed under the 2015-16 salary cap meaning I would have to market Al Horford for a new max deal which could turn some GMs away from signing him. As much as Al's on-court production and consistency make him a $12 million/year player, many GMs would agree his value/injury history don't translate to maximum money which is what I would be asking for in the market. Of course there's always that one GM willing to overpay and offer a long-term, max deal now, but the difference between a max deal this year versus next year could be a $30 million-dollar difference over the course of his next contract. In other words, he's better off staying in his current contract.

As Horfords agent, there's still that itch to opt him out and test the market with a two-year, maximum-dollar, player option deal. So I turn to Al Horfords capology stats. The capology stats allow me to compare Al Horford's contract in my current league with Al Horford contract numbers from other Mock GM® leagues and current season. If I compare Al's league contract with his actual contract value, I'm getting max value. When compared to his Negotiated 2014-15 Averages, I am still on top with his current contract value and see that based on those numbers, I may lose money put on the market.

Using information available in Mock GM®, I validated my decision to opt Al into the final year of his contract postponing his free agency until the 2016-17 offseason when the cap rises about $20 million. I don't forsee Al Horford's value changing significantly for the worse in one season. Signing a potentially maximum deal next season can net him almost $30 million more dollars than if he were to sign a maximum deal this offseason.

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